Recent reports are being viewed as pointing to a general housing recovery, or at least to reaching the bottom. The most recent is the RPX monthly survey.
This seems to be some economic spin, most recently reflected in this morning's JUMP in Consumer Confidence. Last month we had a surprising increase. This morning we had a shocking increase.
This rise in Consumer Confidence must be balanced with the home price decline, increasing unemployment, and the growing list of bank closures.
From last week's RPX report, several news accounts reported that the housing market is showing signs of stabilizing from its freefall in 2008. The report gives a composite index of home prices from 25 larger MSA's. The report gave this summary, "The Composite declined only 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis in both February and March 2009, which compares favorably to the 1.2 percent and 0.9 percent declines in February and March 2008."
(RPX stands for Radar Logic monthly report the Residential Property IndexTM (RPXTM).)
(MSA stands for Metropolitan Statistical Area. It is based on census data and is used, among other purposes, as the basis for establishing lending parameters such as maximum loan amounts and median income for some mortgage programs.)
This report shows that 13 of the 25 larger MSA's all had price increases from February to March 2009. Most looked at this as partially a result of seasonal changes, but it was considered to be a positive sign.
The report data though still shows consistent declines in Year over Year results. Each of the 25 MSA's showed price declines from March 2008 to March 2009. Additional concerns seem real that the growing unemployment figures will point to even more foreclosures causing increased inventories and price pressure.
Today additional information came out from the Case Schiller index. The index reports a "staggering 32.2%" decline since the housing market began its fall. The most recent quarter showed "a 19.1% decline compared to the first quarter of 2008, marking the steepest fall ever in the 21-year history of the index."
This chart is from the Case-Shiller HPI showing percentage declines. Projections seem to indicate continued national declines with pressures from foreclosures and continuing loss of qualified buyers from unemployment and tightened requirements for all lending programs.
Chattanooga has not been immune to price declines. With the median price dropping over 8%.
What ARE MSA's and RPX's?
Did you see the report on FOX this May 24th, 2009 week...92% of American homeowners are still paying their mortgages on time.
Jill,
Missed that report, but was familiar with the percentages. That has always been the case. The real losses are not so much in mortgage defaults, but in credit default swaps initially, and now in real property value drops.
Of course with our employment numbers the forelangsatclosures and defaults may increase.
I will define RPX and MSA in my post. Thanks for pointing out that omission.
BTW, I added some info to the post as you were commenting. Mostly on today's consumer confidence.
Richard