News that the service sector showed growth for the first time in a year is a very postive sign that the economy is beginning a turn around. Employment is still the big question, as we all look for sustained job gains. Last Friday's employment numbers nationwide indicate that jobs will continue to be a drag on the economic recover.
Employment is always a trailing indicator of economic trends, and as such, improvement in jobs tends to lag behind improvements in other areas. The numbers of unemployed though are the highest since 1983. The size of the employment problem is having a great impact of the recovery. And most definitely on the individual families who are struggling with lost work.
Improvement in jobs is not simply trailing the recovery. It is weakening it. The job losses seem also to be permanent in many cases with factory closings and whole industries retracting. Unemployment in Tennessee is higher than the national numbers, with 10.8% statewide and 9.6% in Chattanooga.
The service sector growth though is great news and cause for optimism.
An even better sign though was reported by John Tess tonight. The restaurant trash index is apparently increasing, indicating more people are eating out. Hotel reservation cancellations are down, indicating more people are taking that trip.
It was a funny hearing the restaurant trash report on the radio tonight, but it is a good sign. Not sure who monitors restaurant trash, or even how one might monitor it.
There are signs that recovery is beginning. We are all ready.
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Richard Smith Conventional, FHA, FHA 203k, HUD $100 down purchases, VA, Jumbo VA, Rural Development, Jumbo, FannieMae Homepath, Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC). |
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Hi Richard~ Yes, we are all so ready for a Recovery! I hope it kicks in really soon!
Recovery, heck we need a slow down to rest awhile. 12 to 18 foreclosure sales a month is just overwhelming. I need a break.
Hi Richard, A very good post and the essence is probably quite accurate. Employment is definitely a key factor and I think you are right that a lot of these jobs are permanently lost. Not sure how that will manifest itself in the housing market as yet but it doesn't bode well, if you ask me.
I think it will be next summer before we really know which direction we're heading. If they don't extend the tax credit I fear for the worst.
Joyce,
I am not sure 12 to 18 foreclosures is a good thing. Maybe good for your personal business. My hope is that the recovery gives foreclosure sales a good rest.
Richard
Willliam,
Love the new photo. The permanent job losses have been scary to me for sometime. It will be one of those factors that will determine what the new economy will be like.
Richard
Vickie,
Good to hear from you. I do think things are starting to turn. Employment is the big drag, but as it starts to turn there will be a lot of pent up demand.
Richard
France and Mark
The summer may very well be the correct time frame for the wider recovery. I hope that a long extension of the tax credit is not needed to prop up the housing market.
Richard