Recently the Fannie Mae Chief Economist, Doug Duncan, in the November Economics Development report offered this encouragement:
It's (Unofficially) Over!
Backed by this graph.
The report addresses many of remaining serious problem - consumer confidence, housing market stability, and JOBS, JOBS, JOBS.
But great encouragement is to be taken with the significant turn around in GDP, evidenced in the chart.
A concern is how much the tax credits have created demand that may not be sustained, and whether consumers will continue to spend.
The report states, "While the improvement in consumer spending may not be durable, it does not mean that the recovery is in doubt. The Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators, which is a gauge for economic activity over the next six months, increased in September for the sixth consecutive month after reaching its trough in March. The string of gains in the index supports our view that the recovery is taking hold."
On the mortgage side, the report looks for a boost in existing and new home sales spurred by the extension and expansion of the home buyer tax credit. But despite this boost in purchases, overall mortgage orginations are predicted to decline significantly for 2010 as rates tend back upwards.
But we borrowed our way into the black. Any proper and relevant analysis would include the national debt.
What is a trillion or so among friends? Heard any rumors about a new jobs tax credit?
Hasn't pretty much every economic recovery borrowed its way into the black? Starting with FDR & the Great Depression. I wouldn't be selling nearly as much waterfront property if that hadn't happened =).
Of course Julia is speaking of TVA, quite significant for the TN Valley, and Chattanooga. Such strategic perspective and investment seem though to be missing in the current stimulus plan, but our debt load is at WWII levels.
Thanks Julia.